Sunday, March 24, 2013
How Much Will The Climate Change Act Cost By 2050
The Climate Change Act 2008 has been called the most expensive piece of legislation the British Parliament has ever produced - according to the Government's own figures, will cost us up to £18 billion every year until 2050 ie £765 billion.
Peanuts.
Most of the cost is in foregone economic growth. Britain's long run economic growth has been about 2.5%. Currently it is zero, or less, depending on time scale.
So, assuming the long run 2.5 rate, by 2050 our economy would have grown 2.83 times by 2050.
With GDP now at £1,650 billion (& the same or actually marginally more in today's terms in 2008), that is £4,674 billion.
But we aren't achieving any growth and since the correlation between growth in electricity use and inn GDP is precise, we won't for the next 37 years.
So that means the cost in 2050 will be £3 trillion.
Correlated over 42 years the cost of the Climate Change Act comes to £38 trillion + the money the government spends - call it £39 trillion
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How much has it cost already. Well, if it were repealed tomorrow, all the parasitism ended, and we got back to the normal 2.5% growth we would still have wasted 5 years. That means GDP by 2050 would be £4,114 billion - a loss of £560 billion. Since this is also an example of geometric growth this still comes to about £7 trillion by then.
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Now for the fun bits - suppose instead of being run by Luddites deliberately opposed to growth we were run by a progressive party able to achieve Chinese levels of growth ie (10%), starting now, by 2050 our GDP, in today's money, will be £56 trillion (comfortably exceeding current world GDP of $70 trillion - £47 bn).
If we had started back in 2008 it would have been £90 trillion.
Of course I have previously said that the Chinese are not doing everything right and that, since the historic record shows richer countries tend to grow faster, we should be able to exceed the Chinese growth rate if out government was really trying. Possibly by a lot. 23.8% would be £440 trillion - I do not remotely expect that but I do believe in maths and if anybody wants to try and disprove the maths I would be interested.
We have suffered fools, thieves, parasites and fascists to rule and impoverish us but we still have an almost unlimited potential to achieve anything we want.
Peanuts.
Most of the cost is in foregone economic growth. Britain's long run economic growth has been about 2.5%. Currently it is zero, or less, depending on time scale.
So, assuming the long run 2.5 rate, by 2050 our economy would have grown 2.83 times by 2050.
With GDP now at £1,650 billion (& the same or actually marginally more in today's terms in 2008), that is £4,674 billion.
But we aren't achieving any growth and since the correlation between growth in electricity use and inn GDP is precise, we won't for the next 37 years.
So that means the cost in 2050 will be £3 trillion.
Correlated over 42 years the cost of the Climate Change Act comes to £38 trillion + the money the government spends - call it £39 trillion
########################
How much has it cost already. Well, if it were repealed tomorrow, all the parasitism ended, and we got back to the normal 2.5% growth we would still have wasted 5 years. That means GDP by 2050 would be £4,114 billion - a loss of £560 billion. Since this is also an example of geometric growth this still comes to about £7 trillion by then.
#########################
Now for the fun bits - suppose instead of being run by Luddites deliberately opposed to growth we were run by a progressive party able to achieve Chinese levels of growth ie (10%), starting now, by 2050 our GDP, in today's money, will be £56 trillion (comfortably exceeding current world GDP of $70 trillion - £47 bn).
If we had started back in 2008 it would have been £90 trillion.
Of course I have previously said that the Chinese are not doing everything right and that, since the historic record shows richer countries tend to grow faster, we should be able to exceed the Chinese growth rate if out government was really trying. Possibly by a lot. 23.8% would be £440 trillion - I do not remotely expect that but I do believe in maths and if anybody wants to try and disprove the maths I would be interested.
We have suffered fools, thieves, parasites and fascists to rule and impoverish us but we still have an almost unlimited potential to achieve anything we want.
Labels: Cheap Energy, ecnomic growth, eco-fascism
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The CCC case we will be twice as rich by 2050, so will even now be a considerable measure better off. Be that as it may, this somewhat overlooks the main issue – if the economy, and specifically the mechanical area, is harmed as an aftereffect of decarbonisation, we may not get the development they are estimating, without a doubt we might get none by any means.
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